Thanksgiving dinner costs by the numbers reveal what's cheaper, what's still pricey

After several years of rising food prices, Americans are finally getting a break at the Thanksgiving table, mainly due to falling turkey costs.

Wells Fargo estimates that a dinner for 10 costs between $80 and $95, depending on whether shoppers choose store or national brands. The AFBF pegs the average nationwide cost lower at $55.18, or about $5.52 per person, down 5% from last year, but still roughly 13% higher than before the pandemic.

The relief is due to easing supply chain pressures and strong competition among grocers, Stephanie Carls, a Texas-based retail insights expert for RetailMeNot, told Fox News Digital. 

"Discounting is doing a lot of the heavy lifting this year," Carls added. "Many retailers are leaning even more on their private-label lines because they allow them to offer stronger value without sacrificing margins." 

For shoppers, that means more opportunities to save without compromising quality, she said.

Shoppers will likely notice that national brand turkey prices dropped the most. The AFBF found the average price of a 16-pound frozen turkey dropped 16% to $21.50 from last year.

"This year's decline is driven by supply, as demand stays roughly the same year to year," Brandon Parsons, an economist at Pepperdine University's Graziadio Business School in California, told Fox News Digital. "Turkey production has increased, and the avian flu outbreak has subsided, allowing the supply of turkey to recover."

Not everything is cheaper, though, including produce and dairy products. 

"While turkey and wheat products have benefited from improved production conditions leading to more supply and declining input costs, other produce categories are exposed to supply shocks," Parsons said.

Sweet potatoes are up 37% to $4 for a 3-pound bag, while fresh vegetable trays have surged 61% and carrots and celery are up to $1.36 a pound, according to the AFBF. 

Hurricane damage in North Carolina, farm labor shortages and typical produce volatility all contributed to higher prices, also according to the same source.

"Mississippi, one of the country's top sweet potato producers, went more than 70 days without rain this summer, resulting in smaller-than-average roots and lower yields per acre," said Francisco Martin-Rayo, co-founder and CEO of Helios AI, which uses artificial intelligence to analyze agricultural and market data.

"The inflation baked into side dishes remains a real pressure point for U.S. households," Martin-Rayo said, noting that processors and packers will particularly feel the squeeze.

Even with price drops, many Americans are still trimming costs by hosting smaller gatherings, skipping extras and mixing homemade with store-bought dishes, according to NIQ retail data.

"Lower turkey prices reflect improved supply and competitive holiday promotions, but they do not necessarily mean food inflation is behind us," Carls said. "Seasonal discounting can create temporary relief, so it is important to look beyond a single item to understand the bigger inflation picture."