Think we're losing the war in Iran? Consider where things really stand

The mistake that many analysts are making today is confusing the Iranian regime's survival with its strength. A regime can persist and still be strategically hollowed out. The Islamic Republic of Iran is that regime.

Iran's terrorist proxy network is shattered. Hezbollah and Hamas are heavily degraded. Israel decapitated the Houthi political leadership. The "Axis of Resistance" and "ring of fire" are now more slogans than the severe threats they once were. 

Iranian deterrence has been exposed as a bluff. Four direct attacks on Israel - April 2024, October 2024, June 2025, March 2026 - failed to impose strategic costs on the Jewish state and instead triggered heavy Israeli retaliation. Iran could not even use Syria or Iraq as meaningful launchpads.

Iran has suffered a scientific and technical brain drain. Beyond the nuclear experts, Iran has lost a generation of expertise in missile design, centrifuge engineering, and weapons development. The survivors are harder to recruit and easier to target, eliminate or deter.

Iran's naval power has been decimated. The regular navy shattered. The IRGC Navy is taking growing losses as U.S. Central Command moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

Against all of this, the regime was forced to play its Hormuz card at its weakest possible moment - when the U.S. has options instead of when it did not.

Namely, before Tehran had nuclear-armed ICBMs, 10,000 ballistic missiles, a Chinese- and Russian-built military, hundreds of thousands of attack drones, a fully operational terror network, and hundreds of billions of dollars to harden its economy. 

That's the strategic picture. It's extraordinary. For analysts who have worked for decades countering the Islamist regime, it's hard to comprehend how much has been achieved.

These are significant issues. They will require a resolute president, a patient public and the American and Israeli militaries to see them through. The biggest risk may be political: the American political calendar including a president in 2029 who gives up.

But what is clear to analysts tracking Iran is that the regime has suffered strategic defeat.