As the holidays approach, Thanksgiving becomes Trump's economic test

Americans are heading into the holidays uneasy about the economy, even as inflation slowly cools.

That uncertainty is reflected in how consumers are approaching the holidays, cautious about big purchases but still willing to spend selectively when they find value. That mix of caution and compromise is something Joanne Hsu, director and chief economist of the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, has been tracking closely. 

"Our interviews reveal that consumers believe that now is a very unfavorable time for major purchases for multiple reasons, including high prices and high borrowing costs," Hsu told Fox News Digital. "It is possible, however, that consumers may still be willing to spend on smaller-ticket items. That said, it is likely that consumers will be looking for value and the best way to stretch their dollars given that they generally do not feel confident about the economy at this time," Hsu added.

That disconnect between improving data and persistent pessimism poses a political challenge for Trump, who rode promises of affordability back to the White House but is now confronting voter doubts about whether that promise is being met.

At the same time, approval of Trump's handling of the economy has dropped to a new low, while disapproval of his overall job performance has climbed to record highs, even among some of his core supporters.

Democrats leaned heavily on affordability themes in state and local elections this fall and it paid off.

"I think they made a real strategic blunder back in January and February and that is that the president ran on inflation and promised to lower prices and then his very first and most prominent policy moves were to enact policies that were going to increase prices," Scott Lincicome, the vice president of general economics at Cato's Herbert A. Stiefel Center for trade policy studies, told Fox News Digital.

"Americans aren't stupid, and they can put two and two together. If the guy who promised you lower prices then suddenly promises to raise prices and prices go up, well, guess what? That guy is going to get blamed," Lincicome added.

For Trump, the real test may come not from economic data but from dinner-table conversations. If Americans don't yet feel the relief he promised, this Thanksgiving could reveal just how far affordability remains out of reach.