Obama-era inspection flaws in Iran could persist as experts warn of nuclear blind spots

"Unfettered verification is everything," Chuck DeVore, Chief National Initiatives Officer at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, told Fox News Digital. "There can be no denial for teams to inspect on the ground. Remote, technological means can achieve a lot, but nothing beats in-person inspections."

IAEA supervision would only be meaningful if inspectors first regain enough access to fully account for Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and ensure Tehran does not retain unchecked control of the material, experts warned Fox News Digital. Meanwhile, a recent IAEA report released this month underscored the agency's limited visibility into Iran's declared nuclear program after last year's military strikes, saying that aside from a single inspection at an Iranian nuclear power plant, the agency "has not received information from Iran" about the status of its other declared nuclear facilities or associated nuclear material. "Nor has the Agency had access" to those sites for in-field verification, the report noted.

A senior administration official told Fox News Digital on background that the MOU required Iran's regime to reaffirm that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons, calling that a critical first step under Iran's new Supreme Leader.

The official also referred Fox News Digital to comments Vice President JD Vance made Thursday, when he said the deal's benefits depend on Iran following through on its promises.

"They have promised not to enrich. They have promised that they would allow inspectors in to destroy that highly enriched stockpile. And then, of course, it's not usable anymore. You take it somewhere else," Vance said. "They promised a number of things, and that's why the deal contemplates a number of benefits if they do those things. But it doesn't do anything if they don't actually meet those promises."

"The Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country. That is a major milestone for the American people, and the first step in permanently denuclearize, easing or permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran," Vance added Monday after negotiations in Switzerland resumed. "And that's exactly what we wanted to do. That's exactly what we asked to happen."

The Vice President said that the technical negotiations will continue over the next weeks and days, even in his absence. He said a framework for "proper political oversight" of these negotiations has been established as well. Vance simultaneously highlighted that "a lot of great progress on other nuclear talks" has already been made in the early days. 

Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Nonproliferation Program, told Fox News Digital that any credible agreement must begin with recovering and safeguarding Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, and not allowing Tehran to keep control of the material while it is diluted inside the country.

DeVore was more cautious about assigning a single number to Iran's potential weapons capacity, saying the estimate depends heavily on the sophistication of the weapon design. He said the same stockpile could translate into fewer basic weapons or be stretched further by a more advanced nuclear program.

Asked what would be needed to make any Iran deal enforceable, DeVore told Fox News Digital the U.S. must avoid repeating what he described as a key weakness of the Obama-era nuclear deal: allowing Tehran to restrict access or keep certain sites off limits. He said the "ultimate question" is onsite verification, warning that Washington cannot allow itself to be pushed into "an agreement for agreement's sake."

In those negotiations, DeVore said, the danger was that the minimum level of verification sought by defense and intelligence officials could become the starting point for diplomats, meaning the final deal could end up below what experts believed was necessary.

"Once you say, 'This is the minimum we need,' then that becomes the starting point, so anything agreed to is less than that," DeVore said. "That's what I fear."

Fox News Digital reached out to the IAEA asking whether the agency can currently account for Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and whether it has any comment on the verification questions raised by the reported framework but did not hear back. The agency did not release any statement after Vance said they would be allowed access to Iran in time for publication.