Prediction markets point to Talarico-Paxton showdown in Texas Senate race

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are signaling growing confidence that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico are on track to secure their parties' Senate nominations.

Talarico, 36, is a Texas state representative first elected in 2018, has positioned himself as a progressive voice within the party and has emerged as a rising Democratic figure in the Lone Star State.

Trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, stands at just over $5.2 million. While odds on these markets don't serve as formal forecasts, they do provide a real-time snapshot of trader expectations.

Traders assign Paxton an 81% probability of securing the GOP nomination, a 63-point lead over Cornyn. About $2.2 million has been wagered on this market.

When it comes to the general election in November, prediction markets give the Republican Party an edge. Even with Talarico leading the Democratic field, traders appear to believe the GOP remains better positioned statewide.

Kalshi traders see a Talarico and Paxton contest with Paxton winning the Senate seat.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than three decades.