Reckoning looms for politicians as longest government shutdown persists

A reckoning is coming.

Or shall we say "reckonings."

And they're coming, whether the government reopens soon or remains shuttered.

That's to say nothing of multiple missed paychecks for federal employees, stress, economic consequences and no SNAP benefits for the needy.

Some of those concerns will dissipate if lawmakers address the shutdown quickly. But there will be a reckoning if the shutdown drags deeper into November.

There are likely specific reckonings for both political parties.

In fact, the entire government shutdown is not about spending levels and appropriations. It's a re-litigation of the touchstone law passed under President Obama in 2010. And Republicans, despite multiple campaign promises and dozens of efforts to kill the law over a six-year period, failed at nearly every turn.

Republicans are latched on to the concept that the subsidies are "pumping money to insurance companies," as Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., put it on Fox. Lankford also characterized those who benefited from Obamacare as a "select group." It works out to about 24 million people. That's 7% of the U.S. population. So, maybe that burns the GOP politically. Maybe it doesn't.

A major reckoning looms for the Democrats, too.

So Democrats are fuming.

Therefore, it's a distinct possibility that Democrats will refuse to fund the government in an effort to extract a concession on Obamacare subsidies and walk away empty-handed.

It's doubtful that Schumer will help this time. But Senate Republicans hope to coax just enough Democrats to overcome the filibuster on a pending test vote and then fund the government through late January.

That's the reckoning for the Democrats. 

No outcome on health care. And getting the screws put to them by members of their own party.

Again.

Progressives will be apoplectic. And House Democrats will seethe - not so privately - at Senate Democrats.

Fox is told Republicans believe they are in range of persuading Democrats who are sweating the shutdown to join them.

That said, it is believed that the Senate GOP leadership is reluctant to force a vote related to the retooled, spending bill without a guarantee it could break a filibuster. The last thing the Senate needs is another failed procedural vote after repeated failed test votes over the past six weeks.

Let's game out the timing for a moment:

By the book, if the Senate breaks the filibuster late Sunday, it's doubtful the chamber can take a final vote on the package until Monday or Tuesday.  But Fox is told there is a distinct possibility that Democrats could yield back time to expedite the process in the interest of quickly reopening the government. By the same token, angry liberal senators could bleed out the parliamentary clocks and attempt to amend the bill to their liking - presumably with Obamacare provisions.

The Senate must break yet another filibuster to finish the bill. Then it's on to final passage. That only needs a simple majority. And even if some Democrats voted to hurdle the filibuster, they might not support the underlying plan at the end. However, that's not a problem if GOP senators provide the necessary votes.

Then it's on to the House. The House's disposition is unclear on this legislation. However, it's hard to believe that most Republicans wouldn't take this deal. Reps. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y.; Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash.; and Jared Golden, D-Maine, are among moderate Democrats who may be in play to vote yes if the GOP loses a few votes. Golden was the lone House Democrat who voted for the old interim spending bill Sept. 19. Golden has since announced his retirement.

And, as we say, it's always about the math.

Swearing in Grijalva puts the House at 433 members with two vacancies. The breakdown is 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats. That means the GOP can only lose two votes before needing help from the Democrats.

All of this is uncertain after 39 days of the government shutdown.

And the only thing that is certain is the political reckoning for both parties.