2 looming deadlines could be key to ending the government shutdown, expert says

Richard Stern, director of the Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget at the Heritage Foundation, explained that while both sides are blaming the other for the shutdown, neither wants to be responsible for essential government workers or the troops to miss out on pay, making those dates central to ending the shutdown.

Some Democrats have even admitted it was their decision to close the government. In a viral video, Rep. Shri Thanedar, D-Mich., said, "We got to make sure Americans have the healthcare that they need, and if that means we've got to shut the government down, so be it."

Former Politico reporter Rachel Bade also went on the record recently, saying, "The pressure is just going to skyrocket on Democrats."

Stern likened the Democrats' actions to deciding to "stomp [their] feet and make a dramatic situation out of it."

"Republicans passed a clean seven-week funding bill. They offered them the ability to fund the government for seven weeks and continue negotiations," he said. "It was superfluous. It really was gratuitous of them to say, no, we demand the shutdown."

"So, at the end of the day, I think they're going to get the blame that I think they deserve."

President Donald Trump and Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought have indicated the administration could use mandatory pots of money provided in the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act to ensure that service members, Border Patrol agents and other Homeland Security personnel paychecks are not interrupted, which could serve as a lifeline for Democrats, Stern noted.

Even if this is the case, the White House noted shortly before the shutdown began that the government closure would jeopardize military pay, critical care for veterans, firefighter pay, disaster relief funding and many other programs important to Americans.

Either way, Stern said that the longer the shutdown continues, the greater the danger that funding can fail, and essential services start buckling under the pressure.

One example of essential federal workers who could be impacted by an extended government shutdown is air traffic controllers and other FAA personnel, who do not receive paychecks during government shutdowns despite being required to work to keep the nation's flight schedules safe and on time. Though they are eventually paid when the government reopens, extended periods of time without a paycheck lead to stress on both the workers and the overall flight system.

In 2019, on the 35th day of a government shutdown, ten air traffic controllers called in sick in Virginia and Florida, triggering ground stops at LaGuardia Airport in New York and cascading delays at Newark, Philadelphia and Atlanta.

"This gets to the question of when do things start spiraling out of control?" said Stern, adding, "Some of these program expirations, as the shutdown drags on, might put more of a fire under Congress on both sides to reach a deal, whatever it means."